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2022 Governor · IA

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 38.1% · Republican 57.1%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.53% · Republican 58.04%

R+18.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.1 − 57.1 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.526 − 58.042 = -18.516
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-18.516) = -0.483
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.483| = 0.483

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81367, race ID 8964 (538 database).