2022 Senate · GA
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 45%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.957) = 2.043
- Absolute miss = |2.043| = 2.043
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81382, race ID 8925 (538 database).