2022 Senate · NV
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.777) = 0.223
- Absolute miss = |0.223| = 0.223
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81383, race ID 8937 (538 database).