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2022 Senate · AL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 616 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 27.5% · Republican 57.1%

R+29.6

The certified result

Democrat 30.88% · Republican 66.62%

R+35.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27.5 − 57.1 = -29.60
  2. Actual margin = 30.882 − 66.619 = -35.737
  3. Signed miss = -29.60 − (-35.737) = 6.137
  4. Absolute miss = |6.137| = 6.137

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81391, race ID 8917 (538 database).