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2022 Governor · AL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 616 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 25.3% · Republican 59.5%

R+34.2

The certified result

Democrat 29.18% · Republican 66.91%

R+37.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25.3 − 59.5 = -34.20
  2. Actual margin = 29.179 − 66.908 = -37.729
  3. Signed miss = -34.20 − (-37.729) = 3.529
  4. Absolute miss = |3.529| = 3.529

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81391, race ID 8952 (538 database).