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2022 Senate · NV

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 45.8%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 45.8 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (0.777) = -3.277
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.277| = 3.277

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81518, race ID 8937 (538 database).