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2022 Governor · NV

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.510) = -3.490
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.490| = 3.490

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81518, race ID 8972 (538 database).