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2022 Governor · MI

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,603 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 46.5%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 46.5 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (10.531) = -6.831
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.831| = 6.831

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81553, race ID 8969 (538 database).