Skip to content

2022 Senate · GA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 791 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45.8% · Republican 49%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.8 − 49 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (0.957) = -4.157
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.157| = 4.157

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81778, race ID 8925 (538 database).