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2024 President · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,440 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 49.2%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 49.2 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-5.527) = 4.927
  4. Absolute miss = |4.927| = 4.927

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88795, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv