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2024 Senate · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,440 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 46.2%

D+3.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 46.2 = 3.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 3.50 − (2.406) = 1.094
  4. Absolute miss = |1.094| = 1.094

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88795, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv