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2024 Senate · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,529 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 48.3%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 48.3 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (0.341) = -0.941
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.941| = 0.941

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88797, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv