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2024 President · Nevada

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,171 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 48.3%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 48.3 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-3.099) = 3.199
  4. Absolute miss = |3.199| = 3.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88798, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv