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2024 Governor · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,674 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53.7% · Republican 39.1%

D+14.6

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.7 − 39.1 = 14.60
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 14.60 − (14.811) = -0.211
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.211| = 0.211

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88799, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv