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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 2,048 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 48.3%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 48.3 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-0.217) = -0.983
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.983| = 0.983

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88800, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv