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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 932 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 46.3%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 46.3 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.849) = 2.151
  4. Absolute miss = |2.151| = 2.151

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88801, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv