2024 President · national
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 2,516 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 47%
even
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.472) = 1.472
- Absolute miss = |1.472| = 1.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88930, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes