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2024 Senate · New Jersey

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 54.5% · Republican 38.1%

D+16.4

The certified result

Democrat 53.61% · Republican 43.99%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.5 − 38.1 = 16.40
  2. Actual margin = 53.611 − 43.990 = 9.621
  3. Signed miss = 16.40 − (9.621) = 6.779
  4. Absolute miss = |6.779| = 6.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88960, race ID 9522 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv