2024 Senate · Texas
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,180 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.56% · Republican 53.05%
R+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 44.556 − 53.054 = -8.498
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.498) = 5.497
- Absolute miss = |5.497| = 5.497
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88972, race ID 9530 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv