2024 Senate · Nebraska
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,194 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 56%
R+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.42% · Republican 62.58%
R+25.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 56 = -19.00
- Actual margin = 37.422 − 62.578 = -25.156
- Signed miss = -19.00 − (-25.156) = 6.155
- Absolute miss = |6.155| = 6.155
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88973, race ID 9553 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv