2024 Senate · Missouri
GQR · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.84% · Republican 55.57%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 41.840 − 55.572 = -13.732
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-13.732) = 10.732
- Absolute miss = |10.732| = 10.732
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89021, race ID 9518 (538 database).
population: lv