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2024 President · New York

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 56.8% · Republican 39%

D+17.8

The certified result

Democrat 55.91% · Republican 43.31%

D+12.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.8 − 39 = 17.80
  2. Actual margin = 55.906 − 43.315 = 12.591
  3. Signed miss = 17.80 − (12.591) = 5.209
  4. Absolute miss = |5.209| = 5.209

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89022, race ID 8860 (538 database).

population: lv