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2024 President · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,458 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 50.6%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 50.6 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-5.527) = 1.327
  4. Absolute miss = |1.327| = 1.327

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89057, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv