Skip to content

2024 President · Pennsylvania

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,299 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 48.7%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 48.7 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-1.710) = -0.390
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.390| = 0.390

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89063, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv