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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,470 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 48%

D+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 48 = 0.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 0.80 − (0.849) = -0.049
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.049| = 0.049

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89064, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv