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2024 Senate · Florida

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45.2% · Republican 49.1%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.2 − 49.1 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-12.778) = 8.878
  4. Absolute miss = |8.878| = 8.878

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89125, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv