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2024 Governor · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,373 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 42.1%

D+9.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 42.1 = 9.40
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 9.40 − (14.811) = -5.411
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.411| = 5.411

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89142, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv