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2024 President · California

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 611 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 55.4% · Republican 30.9%

D+24.5

The certified result

Democrat 58.47% · Republican 38.33%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.4 − 30.9 = 24.50
  2. Actual margin = 58.468 − 38.333 = 20.135
  3. Signed miss = 24.50 − (20.135) = 4.365
  4. Absolute miss = |4.365| = 4.365

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89186, race ID 8762 (538 database).

population: lv