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2024 President · Virginia

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 42.7%

D+7.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 42.7 = 7.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
  3. Signed miss = 7.60 − (5.767) = 1.834
  4. Absolute miss = |1.834| = 1.834

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89187, race ID 8895 (538 database).

population: lv