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2024 President · Wyoming

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 26.5% · Republican 69%

R+42.5

The certified result

Democrat 25.84% · Republican 71.60%

R+45.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.5 − 69 = -42.50
  2. Actual margin = 25.842 − 71.598 = -45.756
  3. Signed miss = -42.50 − (-45.756) = 3.256
  4. Absolute miss = |3.256| = 3.256

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89216, race ID 8911 (538 database).

population: lv