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2024 Senate · Michigan

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 47.3%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 47.3 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (0.341) = 0.959
  4. Absolute miss = |0.959| = 0.959

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89246, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv