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2024 President · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 728 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49.3%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49.3 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (-0.859) = -0.441
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.441| = 0.441

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89247, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv