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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 728 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 48.3%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 48.3 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (0.849) = -0.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.349| = 0.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89247, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv