Skip to content

2024 President · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,310 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 50.4%

R+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 50.4 = -3.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -3.60 − (-3.212) = -0.388
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.388| = 0.388

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89249, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv