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2024 Governor · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,310 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.1% · Republican 41%

D+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.1 − 41 = 11.10
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 11.10 − (14.811) = -3.711
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.711| = 3.711

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89249, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv