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2024 President · North Carolina

Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.212) = 7.212
  4. Absolute miss = |7.212| = 7.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89272, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv