2024 President · Nevada
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%
R+3.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-3.099) = 5.099
- Absolute miss = |5.099| = 5.099
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89273, race ID 8857 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv