2024 President · Michigan
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 998 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 47%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.414) = -1.586
- Absolute miss = |-1.586| = 1.586
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89274, race ID 8820 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv