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2024 Senate · Michigan

Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 998 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.341) = -0.341
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.341| = 0.341

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89274, race ID 9515 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv