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2024 Governor · North Carolina

Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 36%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 36 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (14.811) = 5.189
  4. Absolute miss = |5.189| = 5.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89286, race ID 9502 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv