Skip to content

2024 Senate · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 875 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.8% · Republican 48.4%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.8 − 48.4 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (2.406) = -3.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.006| = 3.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89373, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv