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2024 President · Minnesota

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 2,065 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 46.8%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 46.68%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 46.8 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.923 − 46.683 = 4.240
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (4.240) = -2.139
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.139| = 2.139

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89376, race ID 8823 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv