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2024 Senate · Minnesota

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 2,065 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.6% · Republican 41.2%

D+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 56.20% · Republican 40.50%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.6 − 41.2 = 11.40
  2. Actual margin = 56.201 − 40.501 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 11.40 − (15.700) = -4.300
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.300| = 4.300

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89376, race ID 9516 (538 database).

population: lv