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2024 Senate · Nevada

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 707 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 42.7%

D+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 42.7 = 5.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 5.50 − (1.643) = 3.857
  4. Absolute miss = |3.857| = 3.857

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89378, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv