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2024 President · Wisconsin

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 869 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.9% · Republican 49.1%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.9 − 49.1 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-0.859) = -0.341
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.341| = 0.341

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89384, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv